'Don’t play games you can’t win': Gas analyst warns Trump will 'lose miserably' on tariffs

A popular petroleum analyst is warning Donald Trump his plan to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada will backfire.

Patrick De Haan, known as the “Gas Buddy Guy,” has “analyzed and tracked oil markets and fuel prices for nearly two decades,” and “is often quoted during gas price gyrations and fuel disruptions by almost all U.S. and international media outlets,” according to his bio.

De Haan pointed to a news report from The Guardian on Tuesday that says Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is “under pressure to stand up to Trump on tariffs.” It also notes that members of the Canadian parliament are calling on Trudeau “to ready a ‘war room’ for the coming battle over tariffs with the United States.”

That article quoted the leader of Canada’s New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, telling the Prime Minister, “The only thing a bully responds to is strength.”

“So where is our plan to fight back?” Singh asked. “Where is the war room?”

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De Haan observed, “there’s a risk Trump is making a miscalculation and now politicians in Canada are gearing up, thinking of how to retaliate on potential tariffs. This is not a good road to be going down.”

Xavier Delgado of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a top think tank, added: “Retaliatory tariffs would hit US states hard (36 have Canada as their top export market). They would also be a major burden on Canadian consumers who are already sour about the economy.”

And in response to a suggestion that Canada and Mexico “threaten to embargo selling oil to US,” De Haan wrote: “Trump will lose this game miserably if Canada decides to take action. checkmate. don’t play games you can’t win- the US is more reliant on Canadian crude than Trump realizes.”

De Haan says that a “25% tariff on Canadian oil would have huge impacts to #gasprices in the Great Lakes, Midwest & Rockies, which are major markets where refiners process Canadian oil. You can’t simply process different oil overnight. It would take investments/years. More US supply wouldn’t help.”

He also posted a map highlighting areas of the U.S. and the impacts of Trump’s tariffs on gas prices. It shows the President-elect’s declared 25% tariffs would have a “major impact” on several “blue wall” states that went to Trump instead of Harris in the presidential election, including Michigan and Wisconsin.

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