Trump bill already on life support in the Republican-controlled Senate



Even if the slim Republican majority in the House of Representatives manages to pass President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill," it may run into a brick wall in the Senate unless it undergoes a major overhaul.

CNN reporter Manu Raju tweeted Monday that the bill already has two Republican opponents in the form of Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who both expressed concerns about the legislation's increasing of the federal deficit and its raising of the debt ceiling, respectively. Raju observed that if two more moderate members of the Senate Republican Conference, like Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) also come out against the bill, that would effectively kill Trump's hopes of passing the legislation in its current form.

Typically, no bill can pass the Senate without 60 votes if a member threatens a filibuster. But under the Senate's budget reconciliation rules, legislation that strictly pertains to budgetary matters can pass with a simple 51-vote majority — which means Republicans only need 50 votes and a tie-breaking vote from Vice President JD Vance in order to get the bill across the finish line.

READ MORE: 'Embarrassment': Trump admin asks judge to hide its tactics for mass layoffs

Currently, Republicans have 53 of 100 Senate seats, meaning Senate Republican Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) can't afford more than three defections if he hopes to get the reconciliation bill to Trump's desk. But even among Republicans, the details of the bill have proven contentious for various factions within the GOP.

Aside from Johnson and Paul's registered opposition due to deficit and debt ceiling concerns, any effort to significantly cut federal support for Medicaid (the program that provides health insurance for low-income and disabled Americans) could also bleed GOP support. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said this week that he would vote against any reconciliation package that cuts Medicaid, due to his state's high percentage of Medicaid beneficiaries. He called the idea of cutting Medicaid "morally wrong and politically suicidal" in a New York Times op-ed.

On the other hand, should the bill not go far enough in cutting safety net programs like Medicaid, it could mean that the legislation doesn't even make it out of the House of Representatives. CNN reported that Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who is a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, indicated that his support for the bill was contingent on both Medicaid cuts and on rolling back former President Joe Biden's popular Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

“Does the bill meaningfully reduce the deficit?.. Does the bill offer ANY transformative changes on Medicaid or otherwise?.. Does the bill fully repeal the IRA to stop the devastatingly bad projects being implemented in my district?" Roy wrote on X. " …Does the bill fix judicial abuses preventing implementation of the President’s agenda to deport?”

READ MORE: 'Bizarro': Josh Hawley sets off shockwaves after launching Medicaid grenade at House GOP



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