GOP warned not to expect miracles from their election scheme

As of right now, CNN anchor Jake Tapper says Republicans appear to “have the edge” in the gerrymandering arms race that President Donald Trump set off with his extreme mid-decade gerrymander in Texas. But CNN data analyst John King says there are some things that even the most extreme undemocratic tampering can’t fix.

With Republicans determined to lock in a permanent House majority by picking their own voters and the Supreme Court agreeing to let white-majority Southern legislators “go back and take away the majority Black districts,” King said Republicans look like they’re winning their gerrymander war.

But he added that “this is still a bad Republican year.”

“[B]ased on historical odds — it’s usually 25 seats on average since World War II — the party in power loses 25 seats in the House in a midterm election year. So the Democrats, on average, are still poised to get there.”

If Democrats have a “below average year,” King said Republicans could maintain their gerrymandering advantage, but the math, he said, is not looking likely.

Texas Republicans hope to grab five extra seats by corralling Latino voters into new districts because Latinos voted for Trump and Republicans in 2024, but King said “a lot of those Latinos in 2025 and 2026 come back to the Democrats.”

“So, the Republicans have put a heavy thumb — maybe even a foot — on the scale, but the voters still get the final say,” said King.

“This is what will decide the election,” King added, pointing to President Donald Trump’s awful approval.

“This has decided every midterm election since I've been alive. Here's the president: In 2018, he was at 41 percent at this point. And [Republicans] lost 40 seats. This is where he is right now,” said King, gesturing to an even lower approval number of 35 percent.

“He's historically low. We don't know where he's going to be in November. The Republicans, now have a money advantage. Now they have a bit of a map advantage. Can they really keep this to 5 or 10 seats? That's the challenge. History says ‘no.’” King told Tapper.

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